From Schedule I to III: How May 2025 Became the Turning Point for Cannabis Reform

Over the past two weeks, a confluence of regulatory pledges, legislative initiatives, financial maneuvers, market data, and public sentiment has coalesced to make federal rescheduling of cannabis feel less like a distant aspiration and more like an impending reality. Here’s how the pieces are falling into place.

1. DEA Leadership Change Sparks New Urgency

On May 22, 2025, the Senate Judiciary Committee advanced Terrance C. Cole’s nomination to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration by a party-line 12–10 vote. In his hearing, Cole committed that “reviewing and potentially moving cannabis to Schedule III” would be “one of my first priorities” if confirmed—a notable departure from the ambivalence of past DEA administrators. By explicitly embracing an evidence-based approach, Cole signals that the rulemaking process, long mired in bureaucratic inertia, now has a clear advocate at DEA headquarters.

2. A Statutory Clock Already Ticking

This leadership pledge doesn’t occur in a vacuum. In August 2023, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) formally recommended downgrading cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. Under the Administrative Procedure Act, once the DEA issues its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking—which it did in May 2024—a 60-day public comment period and subsequent final-rule review must follow. With Cole’s imminent confirmation, that process is poised to move from a paused draft into active finalization.

3. Bipartisan Research Reform Signals Science-First Agenda

Just days before Cole’s hearing, Representatives Dina Titus (D-NV) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN) introduced the Evidence-Based Drug Policy Act of 2025, a surgical fix to remove statutory barriers preventing federal agencies from funding research on Schedule I substances—including cannabis. The bill enjoys wide backing from the Drug Policy Alliance, NORML, Marijuana Policy Project, Students for Sensible Drug Policy, and more, underscoring bipartisan recognition that modern cannabis policy must rest on robust science. If enacted, agencies could begin issuing research grants as early as 2026, with clinical trials ramping up shortly thereafter.

4. Banking Reform Embedded in Major Financial Legislation

On May 21, 2025, Senate leaders cleared the GENIUS Act—a flagship cryptocurrency regulatory bill—by invoking cloture (69–31), setting it up for imminent floor debate. Reports confirm that a SAFE Banking amendment (formerly H.R. 2891/S. 1323) could be tacked onto this package, effectively granting depository institutions safe-harbor to serve state-legal cannabis businesses even while federal prohibition remains. Embedding cannabis banking reform in must-pass legislation signals Congressional willingness to normalize cannabis commerce—another brick in the path to rescheduling.

5. Market Maturation Underscores Economic Resilience

Despite a slight 3.4% decline in cannabis-sector employment, U.S. legal cannabis sales reached a record $30.1 billion in 2024—a 4.5% year-over-year increase. Analysts attribute this to a shift from hyper-growth to “operational discipline,” demonstrating the industry’s ability to thrive under stringent regulatory frameworks. Such sustained economic performance bolsters the argument that cannabis no longer fits the mold of Schedule I’s “high potential for abuse” category.

6. Public Opinion Overwhelmingly in Favor

Nationwide polls indicate that over two-thirds of Americans now support legalizing cannabis, with 70% backing federal legalization in Gallup surveys and similar figures from student-led research projects and Gallup data MPPGallup.com. This bipartisan consensus—spanning age, region, and political affiliation—has rendered federal stasis increasingly untenable. Elected officials face mounting pressure to align federal law with the will of their constituents.

7. Infrastructure & Research Ecosystem Takes Shape

Beyond scheduling, government agencies are already gearing up to implement new frameworks:

• Banking rails: Financial institutions are drafting compliance protocols in anticipation of SAFE Banking protections.
• Research networks: Universities and VA hospitals are preparing grant proposals to study cannabis’s therapeutic potential under the Evidence-Based Drug Policy Act.
• Clinical trials: Early-stage formulations for Schedule III cannabis derivatives are under FDA review, leveraging data gathered in states with existing medical programs.

Conclusion: The Inevitable Path Forward

When leadership changes, statutory timelines are active, Congress converges on research and banking reforms, markets thrive under regulation, and public support surges past two-thirds, federal rescheduling ceases to be a question of if and becomes a matter of when. With each legislative and administrative milestone, moving cannabis to Schedule III—and laying the groundwork for eventual nationwide legalization—feels not just possible, but inevitable as of May 2025.